NRFI Results

Eury Perez brings the sharpest first-inning arm here, sitting scoreless in 71% of his 21 starts and clean over his last five, while Jake Irvin counters at 64% with a 5-for-5 recent stretch. The wrinkle is Washington's bats, which put up a run in the first 33% of the time — sixth-most in MLB — enough to keep this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Eury Perez's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Quinn Mathews has kept the first inning clean in both of his starts, but two outings tell you almost nothing — and that's the whole problem with pricing this one. Andrew Painter's 63% NRFI mark over 16 starts is more solid footing, though he's been scored on in four of his last five, and Philadelphia's lineup plates a run in the opening frame 32% of the time. At Citizens Bank Park, 47% scoreless is essentially the market's number.

• Coin flip — Andrew Painter's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Cody Bradford has yet to allow a first-inning run through his three starts, and Ryan Johnson brings a 73% NRFI mark of his own into Globe Life Field, a park that suppresses scoring at a 94 run factor. But the Angels put up first-inning runs more than any lineup in MLB (34%, 36% vs lefties), which keeps this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cody Bradford's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Jacob Lopez brings a stellar 88% first-inning shutout rate into Daikin Park, and Houston's bats — while 4th-most active in the first — have dented lefties just 21% of the time. On the other side, Hunter Brown's 75% NRFI mark faces an Oakland lineup that scores early 31% versus righties. Both offenses can nick these arms, keeping this one squarely a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob Lopez's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -119 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Christian Scott has cruised through the first frame in 72% of his 18 starts, giving the Mets a clear NRFI edge on their side. The tension comes from Luis Castillo, who's slipped to just two scoreless first innings in his last five outings, and the White Sox rank 11th in MLB scoring in the opening frame. That split-the-difference profile keeps this a true 50/50.

• Coin flip — Christian Scott's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -127 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Drew Anderson has been perfect in the first frame, going 5-for-5 on NRFI across his five starts, though that's a small sample against a Detroit lineup that scores in the opening inning 34% of the time — third-most in MLB. Michael Wacha's steady 79% first-inning success helps balance it out, leaving this one right at a 50/50 split.

• Coin flip — Drew Anderson's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Two hot arms collide here: Jared Jones has stranded the first inning in four of his last five, and Tarik Skubal has gone a perfect 5-for-5 lately. The pitching says NRFI, but the Dodgers' first-inning bats — scoring 32% of the time, ninth-most in MLB — keep this a true coin flip at 49%.

• Coin flip — Jared Jones' 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.

Michael Soroka has been outstanding at keeping the first frame clean, holding a 76% NRFI mark and going 5-for-5 in his last five starts, and Rhett Lowder counters at 61% with four scoreless firsts in his last five. Both offenses rank low at scoring early, but Chase Field's 106 run factor keeps this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Michael Soroka's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.